With the Toronto Maple Leafs-Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets-Nashville Predators video games streaming dwell on ESPN+ on Thursday evening, we figured it was an excellent time to replace our picks on who might be representing every convention in the Stanley Cup Final, provided that these 4 golf equipment all have a powerful Cup case. Plus, another massive lingering questions on every crew.
What’s your Stanley Cup Final matchup proper now?
Greg Wyshynski, senior NHL author: My preseason picks are each embedded in playoff seeds, so I am going to hold using this horse: The Tampa Bay Lightning out of the East, and the San Jose Sharks out of the West.
The Lightning proceed their reign at No. 1. Plus, who has the most Canadian provinces represented on their roster? Which crew is heaviest? And way more.
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After failing to make the Panthers’ roster in 2017, the veteran has change into an electrifying goal-scoring drive for the Golden Knights this season.
Tampa is demonstrably the finest crew in the NHL, with a plus-58 objective differential and incomparable depth. They have been constructed to win this season, and up to now their basis is sturdy. The Sharks are a shakier proposition. I like them as a match crew, principally as a result of Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns will play 55 minutes mixed per sport, and since Logan Couture is one in all my favourite “win in any respect prices” avid gamers. However their goaltending is … not on a championship degree, with a .896 crew save share. However I am nonetheless on the Bolts vs. the Sharks, with Steve Yzerman’s grand scheme culminating in a Stanley Cup win for Steven Stamkos & Co.
Emily Kaplan, nationwide NHL reporter: Earlier than the season I picked Winnipeg over Tampa Bay, and I see no purpose to pivot. I concern Tampa Bay is getting into the outdated Washington Capitals territory: an uber-talented crew with unbelievable common season dominance that won’t win the Cup … till we least anticipate them to accomplish that.
The Jets are plucky, full, and have not hit their potential this season. The Central Division is not fairly as treacherous as we anticipated, clearing a path for second half domination. Playoff hockey is all about discovering stride at the proper time.
Dimitri Filipovic, hockey analytics author: Honest warning: take what I say right here with a grain of salt, since I am the person who actually picked towards the Capitals in each single spherical throughout their Stanley Cup cup run final postseason (after having prematurely and incorrectly picked them to win all of it the earlier season). There are roughly 5 groups in every convention that might very plausibly make it to the Final if issues break proper for them, however I am going to go together with the Lightning and the Predators simply to barely differentiate myself from my astute colleagues.
Whereas issues are nearly too tight to name out West between the Predators, Jets, and Sharks, the Lightning are clearly the class of the NHL at the second. They’re going to certainly decelerate in some unspecified time in the future if solely out of sheer pity for the remainder of the league, however for now they’re on tempo to end the season with a really absurd 130 factors and plus-100 objective differential. They’ve 4 offensive strains that may come at you in waves and beat you, a completely deadly energy play, and probably the most prolific younger goalie in the sport in Andrei Vasilevskiy. Oh, and Nikita Kucherov is at the moment in the midst of the sort of season that we have solely ever actually seen in video video games and bygone eras, having ripped off 63 factors in his previous 35 video games since the begin of November. As a result of they haven’t any actual identifiable weak spot, they’ve to be the decide proper now, previous playoff demons however.
Sachin Chandan, ESPN the Journal researcher: As dominant as Tampa Bay has been, their greatest impediment may very well be getting a harmful matchup towards an skilled Pittsburgh Penguins or Boston Bruins crew in the first spherical, adopted by a brutal matchup with the Toronto Maple Leafs in the second spherical. To me, this opens up an opportunity for the Capitals to get to one other Final, and I see Nashville popping out of the West.
Regardless of the accidents, they will nonetheless throw waves of gifted defensemen at you, an elite high line when wholesome, and goalie Pekka Rinne has led the league in high-danger save share, at .898. There may very well be tough matchups forward, particularly in the event that they see Winnipeg in the second spherical, however the Predators are a crew on the hunt. They’re my decide.
Who’s the most indispensable non-goalie among the Leafs, Lightning, Preds and Jets?
Wyshynski: For the Maple Leafs, there’s Morgan Rielly after which there’s everybody else on their protection corps. He has 47 factors in 45 video games, together with 15 on the energy play. He leads the Leafs in common ice time and has a plus-25 objective differential at 5-on-5. He can drive the offense and skate the Leafs out of hassle in their very own zone, having actually come into his personal as a defender. And he does most of this whereas partnered with Ron Hainsey. The Leafs’ final failing will possible be their blue line; I shudder to suppose what it will seem like in the event you eliminated Rielly from that group this season.
Kaplan: Prime-line heart Ryan Johansen has performed with out his two star wingers for the bulk of the season; the trio of Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson (thumb damage) and Filip Forsberg (hand) have performed lower than 200 minutes collectively. And nonetheless, Johansen is at a career-high scoring tempo of zero.88 factors per sport, his highest clip since 2014-15. That is whereas enjoying with guys like Austin Watson, whom Johansen has helped elevate. The Predators do not have terrific heart depth, and have struggled scoring this season; Nashville has the fewest objectives per sport in the league, largely due to stated accidents.
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The Preds have been ready to face up to adversity up to now. If Johansen went down, I am undecided they may very well be as resourceful.
Filipovic: A big a part of what makes these groups so particular is that they are so deep and so well-rounded, able to beating you in any variety of methods on a given evening. They’re about as well-prepared to climate an damage to a key contributor as you will be in the NHL, which makes it tough to isolate only one particular person as the figuring out issue for his or her total crew success. That stated, I am going to go together with Mark Scheifele right here just because there’s such a big hole between himself and the subsequent most suitable choice the Jets have at what’s a pivotal place.
Scheifele was a monster throughout Winnipeg’s playoff run final season, scoring 14 objectives in 17 postseason video games, and he is continued that torrid tempo with 25 in 46 this common season. At practically 16 p.c for his profession, he is one in all the simplest one-shot scorers we have now in the league, which makes him a match made in heaven subsequent to Blake Wheeler’s pinpoint passing. Final season, we noticed the Jets exit and pay up massive for Paul Stastny as a rental at the commerce deadline to assist solidify that heart place, and it would not be remotely stunning to see them do one thing comparable once more in the coming weeks. If they do not, this crew takes a considerable hit if Scheifele falls injured.
Chandan: Sure, I understand that the Lightning are loaded with scoring expertise, however I am going with Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov is a favourite for the Hart Trophy, and at the moment leads the league with 75 factors. Kucherov’s shot chart might as properly be Jackson Pollock of the offensive zone, as he is shot from throughout the zone. He additionally creates possibilities for his teammates, as he is assisted on 67 p.c of Tyler Johnson’s objectives, 59 p.c of Brayden Level’s objectives, and 67 p.c of Steven Stamkos’s objectives. They would not be completely cooked with out him, however their Cup possibilities would fall considerably.
What’s a deadly flaw that might derail one in all the 4 groups’ quest for the Cup?
Wyshynski: The Predators have one in all the finest goalies in all of hockey in 36-year-old veteran Pekka Rinne … properly, in the common season no less than. I am legitimately involved about Rinne in massive spots in the postseason. Three of his 4 losses to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2017 Stanley Cup Final have been embarrassing. At the time, the thought was that Rinne simply could not carry out in Pittsburgh, after which he acquired yanked at residence twice of their 2018 collection towards the Jets, together with their Sport 7 loss when he lasted 10 minutes and 31 seconds.
I do know he is a competitor, and he advised me earlier this season that the disasters from the final two playoffs are motivation for him. However my belief simply is not there for Rinne in the playoffs. Nearly as good as Juuse Saros goes to be, he does not have the reps to carry this crew if Pekka falters.
We begin this episode by reviewing Emily Kaplan’s piece on “Hockey Butts,” which drew response from round the sports activities world. Former NHL Goaltender Marty Biron weighs in on the Sabres’ struggles, together with the way forward for Jeff Skinner in Buffalo (14:12). Rangers defenseman Marc Staal joins to speak about his household’s NHL success, in addition to his future in New York (33:00). Pay attention »
Kaplan: It is a bit unfair to choose contemplating the bulk of accidents they’ve had to endure, however I’m frightened about the Predators’ particular groups. Nashville has the league’s 28th-ranked energy play (14.2 p.c, which is definitely an enchancment from some early-season figures) in addition to an 18th-ranked penalty kill (79.2 p.c). Neither of these marks will fly in playoff hockey. Final season, solely three groups survived previous the first spherical with an influence play under 20 p.c.
Filipovic: It is a bit of a cop-out, however the greatest factor working towards these high groups proper now’s the preposterous playoff system the league remains to be insisting on utilizing. Whereas it is actually all the time enjoyable watching best-on-best compete at the highest degree, it is a disservice to these 4 nice groups that they’ll have to play one another in the second spherical of the postseason just because they occur to be enjoying in the identical division.
It is particularly brutal for a crew like the Maple Leafs, who’re arguably the second finest crew in the total Jap Convention, as a result of their playoff path seems prefer it’s as soon as once more headed in direction of a primary spherical assembly towards the Bruins (who might conceivably be the third finest crew in the East when absolutely wholesome). Even when they lastly recover from the hump and slay these demons, they will presumably have emptied the tank earlier than they even get to Tampa Bay to face the Lightning in the second spherical, a crew that can possible have come off a brief collection towards the second wild card. In the event that they someway handle to do the unthinkable and get by them as properly, they will be ripe for the taking for whoever manages to come out of a way more forgiving Metropolitan Division bracket. Nobody will shed a tear for them, but it surely’s nonetheless an unjust method for the NHL to be going about conducting its enterprise. Any variety of different potential seeding codecs would do a greater job of figuring out who the finest crew actually is.
Chandan: The Lightning are far and away the finest crew in the league up to now, however dropping Andrei Vasilevskiy to damage might undermine the crew’s mission, as nice of a narrative as Louis Domingue has been. As we have all talked about, they’ve the expertise and the firepower to win anyway, however in the playoffs, a streaking crew might have the opportunity to pull an upset. He has been dominant since returning after lacking 14 video games due to a foot damage, however the Lightning don’t want to have to cope with goalie questions in Might.