It is time for a free-agency replace! There are nonetheless a variety of free brokers on the market beside Bryce Harper and Manny Machado — together with some high quality second basemen, among the finest closers of all time, some past-their-prime outfielders, some lefty starters who do not throw arduous and a bunch of replacement-level relievers.
Let us take a look at the most effective obtainable at every place, some potential matches for every participant and — not for betting functions! — predict the place every participant will signal. Every participant’s 2019 seasonal age is included alongside together with his projection from FanGraphs.
1. Dallas Keuchel (31, three.69 ERA, three.2 WAR) — Keuchel does not have the ceiling of Patrick Corbin, which is why he won’t method the $140 million Corbin acquired, however he’s reportedly searching for a five-year deal, an enormous ask for a pitcher who missed time in 2016 with a sore shoulder and extra time in 2017 with a pinched nerve in his neck.
Most closely fits: Padres, Rangers, Nationals
Prediction: Padres. The Angels as soon as appeared a chance, however they as an alternative went for amount with Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill. The Rangers are determined for beginning pitching. The Phillies and Nationals aren’t determined, however have been concerned in distinguished rumors for Keuchel (though balking on the 5 years). The Padres have been itching to make an enormous splash this offseason; possibly this will probably be it.
2. Gio Gonzalez (33, four.39 ERA, zero.Eight WAR) — He has averaged 31 begins over the previous 9 seasons, however he had his lowest strikeout charge in that span in 2018 and his highest stroll charge since 2010. Steamer forecasts some type of damage and solely 92 innings.
Most closely fits: Rangers, Angels, A’s
Prediction: A’s. How a few return to Oakland, the place he debuted with in 2008? The A’s may use a starter who can take the mound 30 instances.
three. Wade Miley (32, four.36 ERA, 1.zero WAR) — He had a fluky 2.57 ERA with the Brewers in 16 begins however was unhealthy in 2016 and 2017 (5.48 ERA). He has typically been wholesome (missed time in 2018 with a strained groin and indirect).
Most closely fits: A’s, Giants, Mets
Prediction: Mets. New York may use a greater fifth starter than Jason Vargas and remains to be $40 million underneath the luxury-tax threshold.
four. Drew Pomeranz (30, four.73 ERA, zero.Eight WAR) — He was in line for an enormous payday after posting a three.32 ERA in 2016-17 with 9.four Ok’s per 9 innings. In reality, he outpitched Corbin these two years. In free company, nonetheless, what you probably did most lately issues probably the most, and Pomeranz struggled by means of an injury-plagued 2018 and might need to take a one-year deal to rebuild some worth and present he is wholesome. Could possibly be buy-low candidate.
Most closely fits: Padres, Nationals, Twins
Prediction: Nationals. Seems like gamble for Washington to fill the No. 5 spot within the rotation.
5. Clay Buchholz (34, four.73 ERA, 1.zero WAR) — He signed with the Royals in late March, was launched Might 1, signed with the Diamondbacks and posted a 2.01 ERA and three.47 FIP over 16 begins and 98⅓ innings. His damage historical past is lengthy, however he is typically good and typically excellent. The Diamondbacks traded for Luke Weaver and signed Merrill Kelly out of South Korea (and may get Taijuan Walker again in some unspecified time in the future), so a return engagement there’s unlikely.
Most closely fits: A’s, Brewers, Astros
Prediction: Astros. I may see Houston attempting to milk 120 innings out of him, permitting the Astros to give Forrest Whitley just a little further time at Triple-A and holding Brad Peacock within the bullpen.
Already signed: Patrick Corbin (Nationals), Nathan Eovaldi (Crimson Sox), Yusei Kikuchi (Mariners), J.A. Happ (Yankees), Charlie Morton (Rays), Lance Lynn (Rangers), Anibal Sanchez (Nationals), Garrett Richards (Padres), Mike Fiers (A’s), Matt Harvey (Angels), Trevor Cahill (Angels), CC Sabathia (Yankees), Tyson Ross (Tigers)
1. Craig Kimbrel (31, 2.79 ERA, 1.four WAR) — Everyone is down on him after his shaky postseason, however he held batters to a .146 common and fanned 96 in 62⅓ innings. No, he isn’t as dominant as he as soon as was — he allowed a career-high 18 extra-base hits after seasons of 4 and six with the Braves earlier in his profession — however he nonetheless tasks as a dominant nearer, no less than for the speedy future. He isn’t, nonetheless, going to get that nine-figure deal he was reportedly searching for on the outset of the winter.
Most closely fits: Crimson Sox, Braves, Angels
Prediction: Crimson Sox. It is simply cash. Again-to-back flags fly ceaselessly.
Midway by means of the offseason, we have a look at which groups have gained floor, which have fallen again and what strikes might be made to shift issues additional.
In his debut ESPN column, Jeff Passan breaks down the standing of this winter’s famous person duo and how the necessity for these two large dominoes to fall is holding different free brokers out within the chilly.
From free brokers to “the opener,” this yr left many issues open for the brand new one to take from right here.
2. Adam Ottavino (33, three.63 ERA, zero.6 WAR) — After a dominant season with the Rockies — 2.43 ERA, 112 Ok’s in 77⅔ innings — I like him to beat that projection.
Most closely fits: Braves, Angels, Cubs
Prediction: Angels. The most effective projection amongst their present relievers is Ty Buttrey’s three.70 ERA. They want late-inning assist.
three. Cody Allen (30, three.91 ERA, zero.three WAR) — I am not a fan of homer-prone closers, and Allen has allowed 28 the previous three seasons, together with 11 in 2018, whereas additionally coming off a career-worst four.70 ERA. The fastball was down to 94.zero, 2 mph under the place it sat in 2015. Appears to be like like a dangerous guess.
Most closely fits: Angels, Diamondbacks, Mariners
Prediction: Diamondbacks. He cannot be any worse than Brad Boxberger was in 2018.
four. Ryan Madson (38, three.68 ERA, zero.1 WAR) — He is previous and coming off a 5.47 ERA, however he was excellent the three prior seasons, and his peripherals and stuff remained higher than the ERA signifies. Steamer predicts an damage and simply 10 innings, thus the low WAR.
Most closely fits: Diamondbacks, Indians, Nationals
Prediction: Indians. Cleveland does not have a variety of certainty behind nearer Brad Hand, and Madson ought to be cheap sufficient for the Tribe’s checkbook.
5. Brad Brach (33, four.04 ERA, zero.1 WAR) — He gave up a variety of hits with the Orioles — 50 in 39 innings — then pitched higher with the Braves. I believe Baltimore’s protection might need had one thing to do with the excessive hit charge, though given his age and heavy workloads over time, it is also potential the decline has began.
Most closely fits: Angels, Mariners, Twins
Prediction: Mariners. After buying and selling away Edwin Diaz, Alex Colome, Juan Nicasio and James Pazos and releasing Nick Vincent, they want some arms within the pen.
Already signed: Zach Britton (Yankees), Jeurys Familia (Mets), David Robertson (Phillies), Andrew Miller (Cardinals), Joe Kelly (Dodgers), Kelvin Herrera (White Sox), Joakim Soria (A’s), Jesse Chavez (Rangers), Trevor Rosenthal (Nationals)
1. Yasmani Grandal (30, .237/.343/.444, three.5 WAR) — He is one of many higher hitting catchers thanks to his energy and walks. He is thought to be pitch-framer and he isn’t previous. He ought to be in demand given the scarcity of high quality catching, however his poor efficiency within the postseason, when he had points with wild pitches and handed balls, might need damage his capability to safe a long-term deal. His market may also have been affected by the J.T. Realmuto commerce rumors.
Most closely fits: Rockies, Brewers, Dodgers
Prediction: Rockies. He may find yourself again with the Dodgers on a one-year deal, however he already turned down their qualifying provide. Let’s go together with Colorado, which made one good addition in Daniel Murphy, and signing Grandal would add much more depth to a lineup that wants it.
2. Martin Maldonado (32, .225/.286/.362, 1.zero WAR) — A defense-first catcher — he won a Gold Glove with the Angels in 2017 — who additionally struggled behind the plate within the postseason for the Astros. Not a lot worth on the plate, however he isn’t in Jeff Mathis offensive-sinkhole territory both.
Most closely fits: A’s, Tigers, Dodgers
Prediction: A’s. Oakland has Josh Phegley, who has a .594 OPS the previous two seasons and has by no means batted greater than 243 instances in a season, listed as its beginning catcher.
three. Matt Wieters (33, .239/.311/.388, 1.2 WAR) — He hasn’t been a league-average offensive performer since 2015, though he did bounce again some from an terrible 2017. Strictly a backup at this level.
Most closely fits: Brewers, A’s, Rockies
Prediction: Brewers. Milwaukee rode Quad-A veteran Erik Kratz within the postseason, which tells you about its catching scenario.
four. Nick Hundley (35,.232/.285/.387, zero.1 WAR) — Nonetheless has just a little pop, though his defensive metrics aren’t good.
Most closely fits: Giants, A’s, Tigers
Prediction: Giants. A return to San Francisco as Buster Posey insurance coverage.
5. Devin Mesoraco (31, .232/.313/.414, zero.three WAR) — Accidents ruined what was as soon as a promising profession. Hit 10 house runs in 203 at-bats with the Mets. Could possibly be a man a lower-tier staff indicators and then flips if he performs properly.
Most closely fits: Tigers, Marlins, Rockies
Prediction: Tigers. The Marlins will want a catcher in the event that they find yourself buying and selling Realmuto, however let’s put Mesoraco in Detroit.
Already signed: Wilson Ramos (Mets), Kurt Suzuki (Nationals), Jonathan Lucroy (Angels), Robinson Chirinos (Astros), Jeff Mathis (Rangers)
1. Manny Machado (26, .288/.356/.529, 5.2 WAR) — We do not know if he’ll be taking part in third base, shortstop or a mix of each, however we all know he is good and we all know he is going to receives a commission.
Most closely fits: Phillies, Yankees, White Sox
Prediction: Phillies. A number of experiences point out the Yankees simply have not been that aggressive of their pursuit of Machado and have but to make a proper provide. Plus, with Giancarlo Stanton on his megadeal, coupled with the necessity to signal Aaron Decide, Luis Severino and Gleyber Torres down the highway, it appears extra seemingly the Phillies will outbid the Yankees (and the White Sox, who’ve tried to persuade Machado by buying and selling for brother-in-law Yonder Alonso and signing pal Jon Jay).
2. Marwin Gonzalez (30, .260/.327/.428, 1.6 WAR) — He fell off from his large 2017 season however nonetheless produced a 2.5-WAR season, and I really feel like that projection is just a little gentle. He is an excellent utility man, after all, who performed primarily left subject for the Astros in 2018 but additionally stuffed in at shortstop when Carlos Correa was injured.
Most closely fits: White Sox, Rangers, Angels
Prediction: Angels. Together with his flexibility, he matches in with just about any staff. The White Sox want a 3rd baseman and outfielders, whereas the Rangers want a 3rd baseman. The Brewers may make him their common second baseman as properly. The Angels are nonetheless properly underneath the posh tax, nonetheless, and they’ve Zack Cozart (injured in 2018) for third base and David Fletcher (good glove, no energy) at second. Gonzalez provides them depth there and additionally within the outfield if Kole Calhoun stinks once more.
three. Mike Moustakas (30, .257/.317/.474, 2.Eight WAR) — He did not get an enormous deal final offseason, and it does not appear like he’ll get one this winter, both.
Most closely fits: White Sox, Royals, Rangers
Prediction: White Sox. As soon as they lose out on Machado, they is likely to be the one staff prepared to give Moustakas a multiyear deal.
four. Tim Beckham (29, .241/.293/.397) — He can play quick or third and had a pleasant 50-game run with the Orioles in 2017 (.871 OPS) earlier than sliding again into mediocrity in 2018.
Most closely fits: Tigers, Diamondbacks, Mariners
5. Wilmer Flores (27, .274/.325/.467, 1.zero WAR) — He can mash lefties, however his lack of vary largely limits him to first and third base, hurting his worth as a utility man.
Most closely fits: Marlins, Rangers, Indians
Prediction: Rangers. May platoon at first base with Ronald Guzman or fill in at third.
Already signed: Josh Donaldson (Braves), Daniel Murphy (Rockies), Eduardo Escobar (Diamondbacks), David Freese (Dodgers), Steve Pearce (Crimson Sox), Daniel Descalso (Cubs), Justin Bour (Angels)
1. Jed Lowrie (35, .254/.335/.407, 2.three WAR) — He is up there in age but additionally coming off a career-high four.Eight-WAR season (and Eight.Eight over the previous two). The A’s acquired Jurickson Profar from the Rangers, ruling out a return to Oakland.
Most closely fits: Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals
Prediction: Brewers. If the Dodgers do not land Bryce Harper, the Dodgers are a powerful chance (with Chris Taylor transferring to the outfield). The Brewers really feel like the right match, nonetheless, as FanGraphs presently tasks their second basemen next-to-worst within the majors.
2. DJ LeMahieu (30, .273/.336/.390, 2.5 WAR) — A strong defender coming off a career-high 15-homer season, although considerations about how he’ll hit away from Coors Area have minimized curiosity in him.
Most closely fits: Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals
Prediction: One downside this crop of second basemen is operating into is that a number of of the groups that want one aren’t in contending mode (Orioles, Tigers, Blue Jays) or are too low-cost to improve (Pirates, Indians). LeMahieu does not have the positional flexibility the Dodgers love, however he matches the invoice if Harper does not signal with L.A., and there’s all the time the possibility a staff just like the Tigers or Blue Jays decides to spend just a little cash.
three. Brian Dozier (32, .235/.322/.427, 2.6 WAR) — He had a horrible free-agent season, hitting .215 and plummeting from four.5 WAR to 1.zero. The projection splits the distinction and expects a greater 2019.
Most closely fits: Brewers, Dodgers, Nationals
Prediction: Nationals. Dozier can be enjoyable at Coors, however the Rockies appear dedicated to Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson till Brendan Rodgers arrives. The Nationals have Howie Kendrick (who can nonetheless hit some however cannot keep wholesome and hasn’t performed a lot second in recent times) and Wilmer Difo (who did not hit in 2018). So the Nationals make sense right here.
four. Asdrubal Cabrera (33, .264/.323/.436, 2.zero WAR) — He is coming off a 23-homer season and has produced an above-average OPS+ 4 consecutive seasons. The defensive metrics proceed to slide from “under common” to “horrible,” even at second base.
Most closely fits: Diamondbacks, Pirates, Yankees
Prediction: Diamondbacks. In the event you do not fully purchase the concept of Troy Tulowitzki coming again — I do not — to play shortstop for the Yankees, how about signing Cabrera to play second, with Torres sliding over to shortstop till Didi Gregorius returns? Think about chance, however let’s put him on the D-backs to again up Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte up the center.
Keep on top of every transfer from the blockbuster offers which have already occurred to the recent range splashes nonetheless to come. Full protection »
5. Freddy Galvis (29, .244/.295/.370, zero.three WAR) — Except for Machado, it is a weak group of shortstops, with Jose Iglesias and Adeiny Hechavarria offering OK defensive choices and inept hitting.
Most closely fits: Pirates, Orioles, Mariners
Prediction: Mariners. Jerry Dipoto simply stated Seattle is trying to signal one other infielder, in all probability a shortstop to probably give J.P. Crawford a while at Triple-A.
Already signed: Jonathan Schoop (Twins), Ian Kinsler (Padres)
1. Bryce Harper (26, .267/.399/.528, four.9 WAR) — Have bat, will signal for large cash.
Most closely fits: Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies
Prediction: Dodgers. Los Angeles traded Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, seemingly to make room for Harper within the outfield. Then again, there was additionally a Los Angeles Instances report earlier this offseason “sale e book” supplied to potential buyers — the Dodgers have been trying to promote a minority stake within the franchise for a number of years — confirmed that the franchise plans to stay underneath the posh tax by means of 2022. Hmm. In accordance to Cot’s Contracts, the Dodgers are presently an estimated $24 million underneath. After all, they may go barely over with out incomes an enormous tax hit. In the meantime, the Nationals have reportedly upped their provide. I am going to nonetheless go together with the Dodgers, but it surely feels extra like a 50-50 guess proper now.
2. A.J. Pollock (31, .259/.326/.446, three.1 WAR) — He was possibly the most effective participant within the Nationwide League in April earlier than getting injured once more. He is good when wholesome, however does have an enormous house/highway cut up in his profession, and now he is 31. He is additionally the one good heart fielder in the marketplace.
Most closely fits: Giants, White Sox, Reds
Prediction: Giants. The Mets is likely to be out of the operating after buying and selling for Keon Broxton (to go together with Juan Lagares). The White Sox have Adam Engel, sort of a poor man’s Billy Hamilton. Pollock might be too costly to return to the Diamondbacks, however they want a middle fielder. We do not know what course the Giants are going, however the present outfield is a catastrophe.
three. Nick Markakis (35, .271/.349/.399, 1.1 WAR) — In his 13th season, he made his first All-Star staff, though he pale within the second half of 2018 (taking part in every sport in all probability did not assist).
Most closely fits: Braves, Giants, Indians
Prediction: Braves. This may really feel like a basic Giants signing underneath the previous regime, however Farhan Zaidi is simply too sensible to signal a 35-year-old outfielder. Going again to Atlanta is sensible, as Markakis can platoon with Adam Duvall and the membership won’t have to shoehorn Johan Camargo into the outfield.
four. Adam Jones (33, .266/.307/.429, 1.2 WAR) — He should not be considered as a middle fielder anymore, and his energy numbers dropped off final yr. He might need to settle for a job as a part-time participant.
Most closely fits: Indians, Rockies, Orioles
four. Denard Span (35, .258/.328/.405, zero.6 WAR) — He had a fairly good yr in 2018 (1.9 WAR) though, like Jones, he ought to be considered strictly as a nook man today. He would make for a strong fourth outfielder on staff.
Most closely fits: Rockies, Giants, White Sox
Prediction: Rockies. Frankly, he is higher than Ian Desmond and gives insurance coverage for injury-prone David Dahl.
5. Carlos Gonzalez (33, .250/.314/.434, 1.2 WAR) — He can nonetheless hit righties, though groups will probably be cautious of the .663 highway OPS he put up in 2018.
Most closely fits: Giants, Indians, White Sox
Prediction: White Sox.
Already signed: Andrew McCutchen (Phillies), Michael Brantley (Astros), Nelson Cruz (Twins), Brett Gardner (Yankees), Billy Hamilton (Royals), Lonnie Chisenhall (Pirates), Jon Jay (White Sox)